The impact of Brexit on EU Travel and Real Estate Markets: Focus on Spain

PROJECT: EC Research & Forward Thinking

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Economic Impact Study

According to a study by Economia Creativa on the effects of Brexit on tourism, the long period of negotiations ahead will create "a scenario of uncertainty" that could affect the travel decisions of the British and the economic context in the United Kingdom, with falls in GDP (around 3%), investment and net income

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THE CHALLENGE 

Brexit has risen a considerable concern both in the UK and the EU. The fact that the UK, the second largest economy of the EU, has voted for leaving –despite the tight margin- is going to have an impact on both Britain and EU in socio-economic, politic, business and cultural levels. The present analysis concentrates in presenting the main consequences of Brexit for the EU travel and real estate markets, focusing in Spain

UK averge expenditure in Spain in function of effective exchange rate Pound/Euro (data Q4 2014 - Q1 2016)

THE OUTCOME

Economía Creativa has performed an economic impact study, directed by Antonio Carlos Ruiz Soria, analyzing the consequences of Brexit on the travel and real estate markets, with focus on Spain. The study has been widely covered by press and cited by academia, showcases the analysis of the UK outbound tourism demand towards the EU and outlines an economic modelling for the impact of Brexit on average spend of UK tourists in Spain in function of pound/euro exchange rate.

In the travel market the most evident consequences predicted was the reduction of the travel abroad altogether and/or the reduction of the expenditure by British tourists in the EU and in Spain. However this context might present an opportunity to many Mediterranean and coastal destinations that are suffering from congestion and tourism seasonality due to an unsustainable tourism model excessively dominated by the sun and beach segment to reinvent themselves by changing their model –not just by promoting niche markets- by moving from a low-cost typical offering based on product and services to a higher added value creative tourism business model in which the aim is to provide a transformative experience in the destination for the creative tourists of the XXI.

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